After this year's edition, win or lose, FEU will be the tournament's most successful team. The Tamaraws have won twice ('04 & '05) and lost in the Finals once ('03). With a win later today, they could be the first three-time champions, breaking the deadlock with UE (won in '03 & '06, Runner-up '05). Based on how they were playing earlier, we could see that they should already be favored to win next year's UAAP title. RR Garcia has been great and even without the full participation of the Gilas boys (Ramos & Cawaling), they're already looking like Barroca wasn't lined-up this year.
The Ateneo de Manila Blue Eagles are the third-most successful team in the history of the PCCL. They won in 2007 against the only non-Manila finalist ever, University of Visayas, and were second to DLSU last year. Now, on the verge of losing another PCCL title with another loss, the Eagles look to tie UE for second-best ever. It's been also very clear that they become pretty lost after winning the UAAP as they begin to transition to next year's system almost right away with their choice not to field their Championship team's graduating cornerstone (Tiu & Al-Hussaini).
Based on the participation of Ramos and Cawaling on the other end, it is clear that Coach Rajko Toroman and the SBP allow the Gilas players to join their mother teams to help validate the tournament. So, it can be assumed that not playing Rabeh is a choice done by Ateneo. They're trying to hand the reins over to the undergraduates right away, but they also keep some seniors (Jai Reyes & Nonoy Baclao) to make sure that they play decently. Their loss in Game 1 of the Finals showed this very blatantly. The gamble didn't pay off this time.
It is crystal that next year's Eagles team will rest heavily on the shoulders of Eric Salamat. While he might not become the Eagle's leading scorer next year (as I predict that Ryan Buenafe will have that role), he will be their playmaker throughout the year. His defense on the perimeter will set the tone and his slashing will be the main weapon on offense. If you're an Eagle fan, you might a bit nervous though as Salamat seems to disappear during the big games. He really hasn't played great in any Finals appearance and that was true again in this year's PCCL Game 1.
Another cause for concern, I feel has been the lackluster play of Nico Salva. With Rabeh out of the games, one would think Salva would begin exerting himself underneath with his high-post moves creating baskets or baiting fouls. He, however, has been very tenative. He's been floating too much to the perimeter, breaking spacing to ask for the ball. Naturally, since he is out of position, giving him the ball often just leads to isolation from the perimeter - the biggest killer of Ateneo's offensive efficiency. His floating to the perimeter 1) leaves Baclao as the only rebounder, 2) get everybody out fo the proper spacing and rebounding schemes and 3) leaves him vulnerable to frustration when he cannot get his offense going. Ateneo fans should hope that he doesn't try to freestyle too much as they can't be careless with their offensive possessions and waste possible scoring chances against this FEU team later today.
My prediction is that the Eagles will tie the series up. They take less shots from the perimeter, less turnovers and better offensive execution can be seen. Look for Salamat to be more present in the lane, kicking out to Reyes and Long for the outside shots. Also, Garcia will probably have Kirk Long in his face for most of the game. So, it could be a grind next game from beginning to end. Ateneo by 4.
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