UAAP Final Four Prediction: (2) Ateneo Blue Eagles vs (3) Adamson Soaring Falcons

(2) Ateneo Blue Eagles vs (3) Adamson Soaring Falcons

First off, thanks to Mr. Aaron Vicencio (aaronvicencio.blogspot.com) for the great picture.

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A couple of years ago, the ABS-CBN coverage of the UAAP flashed a pretty interesting graphic. Adamson had not won against Ateneo for 15 years or so already. The last time they had won, Fidel Ramos was president, Gas was P9/Liter and it was P26: $1. Basically, ever since Ateneo got out of its dark ages, Adamson has fallen to the bigger bird.

Adamson has come so close so many times, it has already become heartbreaking.

In 2004, Adamson lost all their nerve, blew a huge lead and succumbed to an Ateneo team riding an emotional wave due to the loss of then captain Larry Fonacier to an ACL injury. LA Tenorio shot the Falcons down with three after three after three.

Back in 2006, UAAP MVP Ken Bono and his crew have literally come within single shots of breaking Ateneo spell over them in the 3 games they faced off. But some how, Ateneo always found a three to save them. Chris Tiu sank a 3 in each elimination game and played decoy to a JC Intal drive in the Final Four to send the Falcons crashing down again.

In the second round of this year's eliminations, Eman Monfort once again shot the Falcons down with a booming 3 late in the game to save the streak and give the Blue Eagles the twice-to-beat advantage.

Somehow, there has always been a game-saving 3 that Ateneo has been able to carve out and extend the Falcon misery. Perhaps, the same story might take place again. But looking at it game plan-wise, the game will be decided by the tandems in the photo above.

The Eagle tandem of Salamat and Salva will have to outplay the Falcons' Alvarez and Camson and vice versa. In the two elimination round games this year, Salva has owned Camson and Alvarez has done likewise to Salamat, but an aggregate of their production has always leaned towards the Eagles. This is indeed the crucial match up to watch as everything else is practically equal. Alex Nuyles will be checked by Kirk Long and Long will basically burn himself just playing defense. Justin Chua and Jan Colina will similarly cancel each other out, and so will each squad's benches.

Salamat and Alvarez are each team's playmakers and a lot is decided by not only their scoring but the situations they create. Lester Alvarez has been going off against Ateneo this year, even scoring 25 in the 2nd round match. Salamat on the other hand has been initiating the Eagles' defense with his ball pressure and timely steals to key the Ateneo running game. Each of these two are expected to perform, and there is almost no doubt that they will.

This is why the producton of their mercurial forward counterparts is equally important. Eric Camson and Nico Salva have been on and off this season, so it is almost decisive when one of them shows up and the other doesn't. This can be most clearly seen in their 2nd round match where Salva get back on track after going into a funk midseason, and Camson, saddled with fouls, did not produce his expected double figures.

Salamat can score less than Alvarez, but that is because Ateneo puts almost a 60/40 split on the load between Salamat and Salva. Adamson on the other hand burdens the Alvarez-Camson combo with a 65/35 split. With this close a match-up though, it is clear that whichever 1-2 combination hits harder will decide if we have another Final Four match or the Finals start already.

This is Adamson's best shot of breaking their losing skid against Ateneo. Should the streak extend, Adamson will have a more difficult time in the coming seasons as Ateneo will surely reload due to their recruitment and Ryan Buenafe will take over..

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The FEU Tamaraws slipped passed the DLSU Green Archers earlier to a score of 69-59. I almost got the spread right if not only for the last basket shot by Exciminiano... I could start a rumor here, but I choose to just let that simmer in your minds.

Surprisingly, DLSU was very much in it and almost won in regulation. But, as expected, FEU's maturity and poise shone through with Sanga's game-tying 3 and The team's overall steadiness in the overtime. It important to note that ROY Terrence Romeo has been playing great recently. He's been hitting big shots to supplement the perimeter with teams locking down on MVP RR Garcia.

UAAP Final Four Prediction: (1) FEU vs (4) DLSU

(1) FEU Tamaraws vs (4) DLSU Green Archers




The Final Four cast of the UAAP is already set. While a lot of things may still happen and seedings could still switch, I'm pretty confident that things will stay the way they are. So here are my predictions for the UAAP Semifinals.
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The DLSU Green Archers were able to pull off a shocker by beating the favored FEU Tamaraws a couple of weeks ago during their second round encounter during the eliminations. That victory was their penultimate win to ensuring themselves a trip to the Final Four this year.

Unfortunately for them, that might be the same win that settles their ouster from championship contention this year.

The Archers technically still have a shot at getting a twice-to-beat incentive during the semis, but it assumes a lot of things. Ateneo and Adamson have to lose their remaining games and has to La Salle win both of it assignments to get the incentive because of the blowout they received at the hands of the Eagles as well. So, if you were on the Archers coaching staff, you should already be thinking about FEU... thinking very hard about how to pull off 2 more shockers.

La Salle may have sealed their own fates with their win over the Tams because of one thing - FEU is a very seasoned and veteran team. Simply put, the Tamaraws should win the title this year or the team should be blown up, and their mindset is that not unexpected losses should happen twice, moreso thrice. Glen Capacio, Bert Flores and the rest of the FEU brainthrust will be looking at every second of their loss to La Salle and break it down. They will not let a bunch of careless or overconfident mistakes cost them the championship, or worse, lose again in the semis. The Tamaraws will prepare and watch so much La Salle game tape that nothing should surprise them come the Final Four.

That is where the Archers did themselves in.

La Salle, putting it simply, has a punchers chance in the match. If they are able to hit hard first and force the Tams to play catch up for the whole game, they may have a greater chance to pull off two upsets. Who knows, just by leading the whole way, they might expose FEU's supposed weak endgame. But, with all the heavy preparation of the coaches and the revenge factor of the players' psyches, they won't be caught off-guard by any new DLSU trick. The Tams will prepare for the full-court trap, for the screens for the Archer shooters and play a tougher game than they did last time out. Basically, FEU will try to bully La Salle into submission.

Unlike the Tams who have RR Garcia, no one on the Archers can really strap the entire team on their back and carry them to the end. Atkins, who leads them in scoring with over 9 points a game, will not attract enough attention from the FEU defense to be able to create for his teammates. Once the vaunted La Salle machine expereinces a hiccup, you may as well say sayonara to their championship chances.

Now, I am not saying that DLSU can't do it. I'm just sure that there chances are definitely slimmer because of that win. So, they better strike first blood or else go through a very tough uphill climb.

FEU by 8 in one game.