The Final Four cast of the UAAP is already set. While a lot of things may still happen and seedings could still switch, I'm pretty confident that things will stay the way they are. So here are my predictions for the UAAP Semifinals.
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The DLSU Green Archers were able to pull off a shocker by beating the favored FEU Tamaraws a couple of weeks ago during their second round encounter during the eliminations. That victory was their penultimate win to ensuring themselves a trip to the Final Four this year.
Unfortunately for them, that might be the same win that settles their ouster from championship contention this year.
The Archers technically still have a shot at getting a twice-to-beat incentive during the semis, but it assumes a lot of things. Ateneo and Adamson have to lose their remaining games and has to La Salle win both of it assignments to get the incentive because of the blowout they received at the hands of the Eagles as well. So, if you were on the Archers coaching staff, you should already be thinking about FEU... thinking very hard about how to pull off 2 more shockers.
La Salle may have sealed their own fates with their win over the Tams because of one thing - FEU is a very seasoned and veteran team. Simply put, the Tamaraws should win the title this year or the team should be blown up, and their mindset is that not unexpected losses should happen twice, moreso thrice. Glen Capacio, Bert Flores and the rest of the FEU brainthrust will be looking at every second of their loss to La Salle and break it down. They will not let a bunch of careless or overconfident mistakes cost them the championship, or worse, lose again in the semis. The Tamaraws will prepare and watch so much La Salle game tape that nothing should surprise them come the Final Four.
That is where the Archers did themselves in.
La Salle, putting it simply, has a punchers chance in the match. If they are able to hit hard first and force the Tams to play catch up for the whole game, they may have a greater chance to pull off two upsets. Who knows, just by leading the whole way, they might expose FEU's supposed weak endgame. But, with all the heavy preparation of the coaches and the revenge factor of the players' psyches, they won't be caught off-guard by any new DLSU trick. The Tams will prepare for the full-court trap, for the screens for the Archer shooters and play a tougher game than they did last time out. Basically, FEU will try to bully La Salle into submission.
Unlike the Tams who have RR Garcia, no one on the Archers can really strap the entire team on their back and carry them to the end. Atkins, who leads them in scoring with over 9 points a game, will not attract enough attention from the FEU defense to be able to create for his teammates. Once the vaunted La Salle machine expereinces a hiccup, you may as well say sayonara to their championship chances.
Now, I am not saying that DLSU can't do it. I'm just sure that there chances are definitely slimmer because of that win. So, they better strike first blood or else go through a very tough uphill climb.
FEU by 8 in one game.
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