First off, thanks to Mr. Aaron Vicencio (aaronvicencio.blogspot.com) for the great picture.
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A couple of years ago, the ABS-CBN coverage of the UAAP flashed a pretty interesting graphic. Adamson had not won against Ateneo for 15 years or so already. The last time they had won, Fidel Ramos was president, Gas was P9/Liter and it was P26: $1. Basically, ever since Ateneo got out of its dark ages, Adamson has fallen to the bigger bird.
Adamson has come so close so many times, it has already become heartbreaking.
In 2004, Adamson lost all their nerve, blew a huge lead and succumbed to an Ateneo team riding an emotional wave due to the loss of then captain Larry Fonacier to an ACL injury. LA Tenorio shot the Falcons down with three after three after three.
Back in 2006, UAAP MVP Ken Bono and his crew have literally come within single shots of breaking Ateneo spell over them in the 3 games they faced off. But some how, Ateneo always found a three to save them. Chris Tiu sank a 3 in each elimination game and played decoy to a JC Intal drive in the Final Four to send the Falcons crashing down again.
In the second round of this year's eliminations, Eman Monfort once again shot the Falcons down with a booming 3 late in the game to save the streak and give the Blue Eagles the twice-to-beat advantage.
Somehow, there has always been a game-saving 3 that Ateneo has been able to carve out and extend the Falcon misery. Perhaps, the same story might take place again. But looking at it game plan-wise, the game will be decided by the tandems in the photo above.
The Eagle tandem of Salamat and Salva will have to outplay the Falcons' Alvarez and Camson and vice versa. In the two elimination round games this year, Salva has owned Camson and Alvarez has done likewise to Salamat, but an aggregate of their production has always leaned towards the Eagles. This is indeed the crucial match up to watch as everything else is practically equal. Alex Nuyles will be checked by Kirk Long and Long will basically burn himself just playing defense. Justin Chua and Jan Colina will similarly cancel each other out, and so will each squad's benches.
Salamat and Alvarez are each team's playmakers and a lot is decided by not only their scoring but the situations they create. Lester Alvarez has been going off against Ateneo this year, even scoring 25 in the 2nd round match. Salamat on the other hand has been initiating the Eagles' defense with his ball pressure and timely steals to key the Ateneo running game. Each of these two are expected to perform, and there is almost no doubt that they will.
This is why the producton of their mercurial forward counterparts is equally important. Eric Camson and Nico Salva have been on and off this season, so it is almost decisive when one of them shows up and the other doesn't. This can be most clearly seen in their 2nd round match where Salva get back on track after going into a funk midseason, and Camson, saddled with fouls, did not produce his expected double figures.
Salamat can score less than Alvarez, but that is because Ateneo puts almost a 60/40 split on the load between Salamat and Salva. Adamson on the other hand burdens the Alvarez-Camson combo with a 65/35 split. With this close a match-up though, it is clear that whichever 1-2 combination hits harder will decide if we have another Final Four match or the Finals start already.
This is Adamson's best shot of breaking their losing skid against Ateneo. Should the streak extend, Adamson will have a more difficult time in the coming seasons as Ateneo will surely reload due to their recruitment and Ryan Buenafe will take over..
-------------------------------------The FEU Tamaraws slipped passed the DLSU Green Archers earlier to a score of 69-59. I almost got the spread right if not only for the last basket shot by Exciminiano... I could start a rumor here, but I choose to just let that simmer in your minds.
Surprisingly, DLSU was very much in it and almost won in regulation. But, as expected, FEU's maturity and poise shone through with Sanga's game-tying 3 and The team's overall steadiness in the overtime. It important to note that ROY Terrence Romeo has been playing great recently. He's been hitting big shots to supplement the perimeter with teams locking down on MVP RR Garcia.
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