Game 1 of the UAAP Finals will be held on Saturday, Sept. 25, 2010 in the Araneta Coliseum. As usual, there will be around 20,000 people watching live. Timeouts and halftimes will take longer and definitely, there will be more commercials since it will be televised on ABS-CBN channel 2 for the first time. A lot of things have changed, but not by much really.
For the first time in three years, the Ateneo Blue Eagles will be considered as underdogs (though not by much) in the Finals against a deep and supposedly ripe FEU Tamaraws team. Ateneo has lost the pillars of its two championship runs with Nonoy Baclao and Rabeh Al-Hussaini graduating to the pros, while FEU on the other hand, has practically lost no one and even added perimeter hotshots Terrence Romeo and UAAP MVP RR Garcia. With so much changing in a one-sided manner, you would think that it is definitely time for a new champion to be crowned. But there is still much to be said...
The UAAP Finals is actually a nicely matched-up series if you think about it.
Garcia vs Salamat
Romeo vs Monfort
Cawaling vs Buenafe
Cervantes vs Salva
Sanga vs Long
Ramos vs Chua
Bringas vs Golla
Nuondou vs Escueta
That's already 8 match-ups deep and we still can't say there's one side who has a distinct advantage over the other. Sure, the awards are pretty one-sided. Garcia is MVP and a Mythical 5 member. Ramos is Defensive Player of the Year and a Mythical 5 member. Romeo is Rookie of the Year. Ateneo will be getting no individual accolades this year. But if we look deeper into the statistics* more of their players are performing at a Top 20 rate. FEU has Garcia at #1, Ramos #3, Cervantes #6. Ateneo on the other hand has Salamat at #7, Salva & Long tied at #12 and Buenafe & Chua tied at #14. So, even the numbers are agreeing that it really is an evenly matched series.
(*based on statistics as of the end of the 2nd round of eliminations)
So what can we expect from this Finals series?
Ateneo will once again gear it's defense towards stopping RR Garcia. Following the strategy employed by many teams against Steve Nash - cut the head of the snake to stop it. Then, they shall hope that trigger happy Tams Cervantes and Romeo will shoot themselves in the foot by forcing up shots against a tough Ateneo defense. FEU, on the other hand, will try to grind Ateneo's transition game to halt and cover all screen-and-rolls of the fluid Eagle offense.
On offense, FEU will still look for RR Garcia and now Romeo to create havoc by playmaking and opening shots for Ramos, Sanga and the rest of the Tamaraw supporting cast. Ateneo will continue to use their defense as their best offensive weapon by creating transition opportunities and scrambles by the FEU defense. Hopefully then, Monfort, Long and Salamat can put in the long ball to open up their inside offense.
So if I were to bet, who would I put my money on?
Being slightly biased but mostly objective, I would still give it to the Eagles in 3. Comparing the Final Four games of each squad, FEU let La Salle hang around too long and put themselves in such a risky spot. Ateneo choked the life out of Adamson early and clearly stated claim that the road to the title would have to go through The Hill in Katipunan. Clearly, the playoff experience and poise of the Eagles stood out against the Falcons. Against a tougher FEU squad, surely the battle will be closer. But, powered by either Buenafe or Salamat as Finals MVP, I would still give it to Ateneo in 3 for the 3-peat.
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